ABSTRACT
Purpose: Recently, the proportion of patients with high myopia has shown a continuous growing trend, more toward the younger age groups. This study aimed to predict the changes in spherical equivalent refraction (SER) and axial length (AL) in children using machine learning methods. Methods: This study is a retrospective study. The cooperative ophthalmology hospital of this study collected data on 179 sets of childhood myopia examinations. The data collected included AL and SER from grades 1 to 6. This study used the six machine learning models to predict AL and SER based on the data. Six evaluation indicators were used to evaluate the prediction results of the models. Results: For predicting SER in grade 6, grade 5, grade 4, grade 3, and grade 2, the best results were obtained through the multilayer perceptron (MLP) algorithm, MLP algorithm, orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) algorithm, OMP algorithm, and OMP algorithm, respectively. The R2 of the five models were 0.8997, 0.7839, 0.7177, 0.5118, and 0.1758, respectively. For predicting AL in grade 6, grade 5, grade 4, grade 3, and grade 2, the best results were obtained through the Extra Tree (ET) algorithm, MLP algorithm, kernel ridge (KR) algorithm, KR algorithm, and MLP algorithm, respectively. The R2 of the five models were 0.7546, 0.5456, 0.8755, 0.9072, and 0.8534, respectively. Conclusion: Therefore, in predicting SER, the OMP model performed better than the other models in most experiments. In predicting AL, the KR and MLP models were better than the other models in most experiments.